MEGA CHALLENGE:

Using an even more complex model to predict future populations.

INTRODUCTION

The population projections you have made so far are still unrealistic because the Earth cannot possibly support the populations you predicted for the year 2100. What will happen? Either there will be mass starvation (a pessimistic scenario) or we have to make fewer children (an optimistic scenario), or have a balance of the two (an intermediate scenario).

You can explore these two alternatives by using a more sophisticated model that uses fertility rates and life expectancy values that can be influenced by the population.

The application now makes use of a better population model that takes into account several new factors that affect population. These new factors and their descriptions follow:

• Carrying Capacity:

  This is the number of people that the region can support.

• Anticipation Factor:

  This is how much the society anticipates the population problem.
  A score near 0 means the society waits until there is a crisis.
  A score near 1 means the society looks ahead and acts early.

• Scenario Factor:

  Population growth slows as the carrying capacity comes close to being reached. Scenario factor determines how that growth slows.
  A value near 0 means life expectancy is affected and birth rate is barely affected. This represents a Pessimistic Scenario.
  A value near 1 means birth rate is affected and life expectancy is barely affected. This represents an Optimistic Scenarion.
  A value near 0.5 means birth rate and life expectancy are affected equally. This represents an Intermediate Scenarion.
  

• Max Fertility Rate Change:

  The maximum percent the fertility rate can change per year.

• Max Life Expectancy Change:

  The maximum percent the life expectancy can change per year.

• Max Life Expectancy:

  The maximum life expectancy that can be reached in years.

A simple way to understand this new model is as follows:

• Each year some people die.
• Each year some people are born.
• Each year everybody gets a year older.
• There are several factors based on the society living in a region that affect the population growth. The factors are based on societal views and how they try to control the population growth. This affects variables such as the birth rate and death rate which in turn affects the total population and growth.

This model still does not contain all factors but it is the most accurate model of all the challenges. Use the model to project revised populations for each major region of the Earth.

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ACTIVITY

First download the MEGA population application.

Run the NetAdventure Population Spreadsheet for each major region of the world, using the data above for an optimistic, pessimistic, and intermediate scenario. Interpret your results. Try to imagine what life would be like in human terms in these different regions and scenarios?

Try different values for the carrying capacity, scenario factor, and other inputs. Study the results you get. Again, think about the impact of your numbers in human terms. Try to determine what conditions you would want for your grandchildren?

Starting with 1995, use the application to predict the populations of each of the world regions for the year 2100 again.

Include the following in your post to the discussion board:

1) Choose one region from this list:


Africa, North and Central America, South America, Asia, Europe, Former USSR, Oceania.

2) First, study an optimistic scenario for the region.
Record the population in 2100 and describe in human terms what life in this region under this scenarion would be like.

3) Next, study a pessimistic scenario for the region.
Record the population in 2100 and describe in human terms what life in this region under this scenarion would be like.

4) Last, study an intermediate scenario for the region.
Record the population in 2100 and describe in human terms what life in this region under this scenarion would be like.

5) Attach a graph image the scenario (optimistic, pessimistic, intermediate) of the region you chose that you think is the most interesting.
Explain why you think this scenario is the most interesting.

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SET UP

You need to download the MEGA population application.


If you use a Macintosh machine, click this link: Mac MEGA Application. The macintosh file is an BIN file that needs to be uncompressed. Save the file to your hard drive. Then using a program to uncompress the archive and you will see an application called "Mega". Double click the "Mega" application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

If you use a Windows machine, click this link: Win MEGA Application. The windows file is an executable. Save the file to your hard drive. The recommended filename is "Mega.exe". Double click the application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

Need shockwave? Get it here: http://sdc.shockwave.com/shockwave/download/

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Technical Tips & Clues

Basic instructions on how to use the application can be found in the "Starter Challenge" Technical Tips & Clues section.

Calculating data using the default values for each region now produce very interesting and very different graphs than what the previous two challenge population models calculated. How well do you think these new graphs reflect the accuracy of the model?