STARTER CHALLENGE:

Using a simple model to predict future populations.

INTRODUCTION

How many people will be on the Earth your grandchildren inherit? Will there be enough food? How much will the world population increase by the end of the next century? Here is what we know: the 1995 world population was about 5,770 million, the average life expectancy was 65.5 years, and on average, each woman gave birth to 3.3 children (the fertility rate).

The Netadventure Population Application for this Starter Challenge is built on the simplest possible model based on the idea that each year there are births and deaths that are a fixed percent of the population of the previous year.

ACTIVITY

Starting with 1995, use the application to predict the populations of each of the world regions for the year 2100 using the application. Also, note the shifts in where people will be living between now and then.

Include the following in your post to the discussion board:

1) State what final populations you predict for each of the following regions is: Africa, North and Central America, South America, Asia, Europe, Former USSR, Oceania.

2) Explain why these predictions might be wrong?

3) Give some thought and explanation as to what these numbers might mean about possible starvation and conflict.

4) Choose your favorite region that you studied and attach a text file of the table data and attach an image of the graph for that region.

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SET UP

1 ... To run the application you need the newest ShockWave plug-in.


Get the ShockWave plug-in by clicking below and following the directions.

http://sdc.shockwave.com/shockwave/download/


2 ... Now you need to download the STARTER population application.


If you use a Macintosh machine, click this link: Mac STARTER Application. The macintosh file is an BIN file that needs to be uncompressed. Save the file to your hard drive. Then using a program to uncompress the archive and you will see an application called "Starter". Double click the "Starter" application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

If you use a Windows machine, click this link: Win STARTER Application. The windows file is an executable. Save the file to your hard drive. The recommended filename is "Starter.exe". Double click the application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

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Technical Tips & Clues

The Netadventure Population Application works like a a spreadsheet and a graphing calculator. The application was designed to allow for very detailed population studies outside of what is suggested above.
Complete instructions on how to use the application can be accessed by clicking the "Help!" button in the lower right corner of the application.

The world population is broken up into regions. Each region is supplied with a default data set that can be used to specifically answer the challenge posed above.
Using the pulldown menu at the top left, you can select the region you wish to study.

The data is represented as a graph and as a table. You can study the graph to notice the trends in population change and it can also be used to estimate the population for a certain year. The table gives a more precise way to read the population for a certain year.
Click the "Calculate" button in the upper left to compute the population changes for the data specified.

You can save the table data and a picture of the graph to your computer's hard drive which you can then attach to your discussion board post that lists your population computations for the year 2100 for each world region.
Click the "Save Data" button in the lower right corner of the application to save the data.