SUPER CHALLENGE:

Using a complex model to predict future populations.

INTRODUCTION

The art of making models is to start with a very simple model such as the previous Challenge, and then make it more accurate and more complex. Having done this, you then ask whether the extra detail is worth the effort.

Instead of treating a population as a whole, the new model will break it up into age groups. This should give more accurate predictions because the different age groups impact growth in different ways.

The application now makes use of a better population model that takes into account the major stages of life:

• youth (0-15 years old)
• the child-bearing years (15-40 years old)
• maturity (40-65 years old)
• elders (65+ years old)

A simple way to understand this new model is as follows:

• Each year some people die.
• Each year some people are born.
• Each year everybody gets a year older. These people may stay or move into one of the three other age groups depending on their new age. The new numbers of people in each age group affect the birth rate and death rate which in turn affect the total population.

This model is still a gross simplification, but more accurate than before. Use the model to project revised populations for each major region of the Earth.

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ACTIVITY

First download the SUPER population application.

Starting with 1995, use the application to predict the populations of each of the world regions for the year 2100 again.

Include the following in your post to the discussion board:

1) State what final populations you predict for each of the following regions is: Africa, North and Central America, South America, Asia, Europe, Former USSR, Oceania.

2) Are your projections for the populations in 2100 much different with this model than with the model used in the "Starter Challenge"?
Does this increase your confidence in your projections?

3) Explain why these predictions might still be wrong?

4) Choose your favorite region that you studied and attach a text file of the table data and attach an image of the graph for that region.

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SET UP

You need to download the SUPER population application.


If you use a Macintosh machine, click this link: Mac SUPER Application. The macintosh file is an BIN file that needs to be uncompressed. Save the file to your hard drive. Then using a program to uncompress the archive and you will see an application called "Super". Double click the "Super" application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

If you use a Windows machine, click this link: Win SUPER Application. The windows file is an executable. Save the file to your hard drive. The recommended filename is "Super.exe". Double click the application to launch the Netadventure Population Application.

Need shockwave? Get it here: http://sdc.shockwave.com/shockwave/download/

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Technical Tips & Clues

Basic instructions on how to use the application can be found in the "Starter Challenge" Technical Tips & Clues section.

Calculating data for each region now produces a graph with five different lines plotted; one graph for each of the four age groups and one for the total population. If you add the graphs for the youth, child bearing, mature, and elderly populations they equal the total popluation. Close inspection of the graph shows that the total population is still on the rise.